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Has Barack Obama's stentorian wafting of his over-praised speech on race relations put the Obama Express back on track? His friends in the media ran headlines last week about his "bounce back" based on a Gallup poll taken March 22 through 25 that shows him at 47 percent and Hillary at 46 percent among national Democratic voters. Of course with a 2 percent margin of error, Barack's team is not popping champagne corks yet.
What's more is Hillary was five points down from Obama on March 9, before both "pastorgate" and Hillary's "combat" experience in Kosovo hit the news, so he might even be "bouncing" the wrong direction.
More significantly another national Gallup poll, also taken March 22 through 25, shows John McCain besting Obama 46 percent to 44 percent (10 percent undecided) and McCain besting Hillary 46 percent to 44 percent (7 percent undecided). Seems to me I read an opinion piece in last Wednesday's Bonanza that concluded the Republicans are on the ropes.
Doesn't seem so, particularly when you consider the results of still another Gallup poll taken among national Democratic voters March 7 through 22 that showed 28 percent of Clinton supporters will vote for McCain if Obama gets the nomination. The same poll shows that 19 percent of Obama supporters will vote for McCain if Hillary gets the nomination.
So Republicans, you know who to pull for in the Democratic primaries even though Obama's flowery speech didn't distance himself from anti-American pastor Jeremiah Wright's hate speech.
Analysts commenting on the effect of Obama's speech are very guarded. It may have been a political success with his supporters but wiser minds warn against predicting the long term impact of a broad brush speech in the sound byte theater of a presidential campaign.
"More than anything else the culture has to be primed to embrace the change that a politician is describing," according to David Hollinger, professor of history at University of California, Berkeley. "You don't do these speeches in a vacuum."
The Clinton campaign was anxious to test the power of Obama's speech as Sen. Clinton addressed the Wright controversy for the first time. Hillary remarked: "I think that given all we have heard and seen he would not have been my pastor. We don't have a choice when it comes to our relatives. We have a choice when it comes to our pastors and the churches we attend." Hmmmm. I detect a few more Hillary supporters voting for McCain if Obama gets the Democratic nomination.
Some pundits (well beyond baby boomer age) compared Obama's speech with Roman Catholic John F. Kennedy's speech in 1960 dealing with religious bigotry. Addressing a protestant ministers' convention in Houston Kennedy said: "So it is apparently necessary for me to state once again - not what kind of church I believe in, for that should be important only to me - but what kind of America I believe in. Today I may be the victim (of religious bigotry) but tomorrow it may be you, until the whole fabric of our harmonious society is ripped apart at a time of great national peril." I can see the parallels between the two speeches.
Of course with both the Democratic primary race and the general election this fall tighter than a tick, not to mention the pollsters' "margin of error," there's little reason for any front runner to go on an extended vacation and little reason for any Bonanza columnist to sound smug about his party's chances in November. So I won't.
I will end by advising readers that former Sen. Mike Gravel, D-Ark. a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, has just announced he is leaving the Democratic Party to register Libertarian. In an e-mail to his supporters he said that the Democratic Party "no longer represents my vision for our great country."
Ron Paul and Mike Gravel. That's the ticket!
Jim Clark is President of Republican Advocates, a vice chair of the Washoe County GOP and a member of the Nevada GOP Central Committee.
What's more is Hillary was five points down from Obama on March 9, before both "pastorgate" and Hillary's "combat" experience in Kosovo hit the news, so he might even be "bouncing" the wrong direction.
More significantly another national Gallup poll, also taken March 22 through 25, shows John McCain besting Obama 46 percent to 44 percent (10 percent undecided) and McCain besting Hillary 46 percent to 44 percent (7 percent undecided). Seems to me I read an opinion piece in last Wednesday's Bonanza that concluded the Republicans are on the ropes.
Doesn't seem so, particularly when you consider the results of still another Gallup poll taken among national Democratic voters March 7 through 22 that showed 28 percent of Clinton supporters will vote for McCain if Obama gets the nomination. The same poll shows that 19 percent of Obama supporters will vote for McCain if Hillary gets the nomination.
So Republicans, you know who to pull for in the Democratic primaries even though Obama's flowery speech didn't distance himself from anti-American pastor Jeremiah Wright's hate speech.
Analysts commenting on the effect of Obama's speech are very guarded. It may have been a political success with his supporters but wiser minds warn against predicting the long term impact of a broad brush speech in the sound byte theater of a presidential campaign.
"More than anything else the culture has to be primed to embrace the change that a politician is describing," according to David Hollinger, professor of history at University of California, Berkeley. "You don't do these speeches in a vacuum."
The Clinton campaign was anxious to test the power of Obama's speech as Sen. Clinton addressed the Wright controversy for the first time. Hillary remarked: "I think that given all we have heard and seen he would not have been my pastor. We don't have a choice when it comes to our relatives. We have a choice when it comes to our pastors and the churches we attend." Hmmmm. I detect a few more Hillary supporters voting for McCain if Obama gets the Democratic nomination.
Some pundits (well beyond baby boomer age) compared Obama's speech with Roman Catholic John F. Kennedy's speech in 1960 dealing with religious bigotry. Addressing a protestant ministers' convention in Houston Kennedy said: "So it is apparently necessary for me to state once again - not what kind of church I believe in, for that should be important only to me - but what kind of America I believe in. Today I may be the victim (of religious bigotry) but tomorrow it may be you, until the whole fabric of our harmonious society is ripped apart at a time of great national peril." I can see the parallels between the two speeches.
Of course with both the Democratic primary race and the general election this fall tighter than a tick, not to mention the pollsters' "margin of error," there's little reason for any front runner to go on an extended vacation and little reason for any Bonanza columnist to sound smug about his party's chances in November. So I won't.
I will end by advising readers that former Sen. Mike Gravel, D-Ark. a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, has just announced he is leaving the Democratic Party to register Libertarian. In an e-mail to his supporters he said that the Democratic Party "no longer represents my vision for our great country."
Ron Paul and Mike Gravel. That's the ticket!
Jim Clark is President of Republican Advocates, a vice chair of the Washoe County GOP and a member of the Nevada GOP Central Committee.
